Crazy! Shipping and chemical raw materials are skyrocketing!

As of November 19, the ex-factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 12,466 CNY/ton. Compared with 11 and 1, the average price was raised by 3130 CNY/ton, an increase of 33.57%. On the one hand, the reason for the surge is the strong cost support given by the strong rise of the raw material propylene oxide. On the other hand, the recent increase in foreign trade orders and the shortage of market spot goods are hard to find. At present, the supply of propylene glycol in the market basically depends on "grabbing", and there is basically no market. Stock up.

 
A variety of chemical raw materials "runaway" rise

Many chemical raw materials and chemical products started to rise in general since the third quarter, and gradually "out of control" after the rise was fully unfolded. Since the fourth quarter, not only the entire line has risen, but the rise is amazing. Powder coatings increased to 2,500 CNY/ton, water-based coatings increased to 3,000 CNY/ton, ABS domestic materials increased by 4,000-6,000 CNY/ton, the PC market’s daily increase was as high as 2,200 CNY/ton, and the price of bisphenol A within a week The increase exceeded 3,000 CNY/ton...Resin, emulsion, curing agent, glue, and silicone products increased by nearly 1,000 yuan per ton, and giants such as Dow, BASF, and COSCO Kansai also took the lead.

Although there will be an explosion of orders for chemical products at the end of each year, and price fluctuations are also normal, the situation that prices continue to rise this year or even hit a new high for more than ten years is still puzzling. Compared with previous years, how is this year different? 

 
Epidemic counter-attack, many countries lock down cities, port transportation is restricted

On the 19th local time, Hans Kluger, director of the World Health Organization’s Regional Office for Europe, warned in Copenhagen that Europe had once again become the epicenter of the new crown epidemic, with an average of one death in Europe every 17 seconds. The second round of the new crown epidemic is sweeping across Europe and the United States. The United States has ushered in the darkest moment of the epidemic in the hustle and bustle of the general election. The number of new epidemics in a single day has been 10w+ for multiple days. European countries have adopted "blockade" measures one after another and officially ushered in The era of closing the city 2.0.

The Scottish local government announced on the 17th that it will take the most stringent level 4 lockdown measures on 11 areas including Glasgow from 6 pm on the 20th. At that time, restaurants, cafes, pubs and indoor sports facilities in these areas will be implemented. All will be closed.

The Austrian government announced that it would upgrade its "blockade" measures nationwide from November 17 to December 6. The media interpreted it as a "second closure of the city", that is, closing all commercial facilities, leaving only supermarkets, pharmacies and other basic shopping places necessary for life.

According to incomplete statistics, 15 European countries including Germany, France, Ireland, Italy, Spain, Czech Republic, Belgium, United Kingdom (England), Austria, Greece, the Netherlands, Poland, Hungary, Switzerland, Denmark and other European countries announced to contain the epidemic after the return of the epidemic A "blockade" order was issued. Among them, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Greece, and Belgium have announced the closure of the entire territory.

Due to the sharp rebound of the epidemic in various regions of the world, some countries have taken measures again to strengthen management and control, and the demand for daily necessities and medical supplies has increased. In addition, the traditional peak season for transportation has caused congestion in many ports. There has been a serious shortage of containers in routes such as Asia, Europe, the Americas, and Africa. Congestion, serious shortage of containers, continuous bursts, dumping of containers, and port jumps frequently occur.

 
The sky-high shipping fee is here, so book by lottery

We have all seen house lottery, car lottery, degree lottery...booking lottery! It is reported that 12 train platform companies such as Yixinou have issued a total of 2,000 train seats by lottery. Participants are rushing to book. In the booking link, each freight forwarder participating in the conference can only book a maximum of 3 routes and 20 seats.

Lottery is required when the total amount of bookings exceeds the amount of bookings. The winning company is not the actual class, but the priority to honor the booking right of the reserved class within the agreed time. Due to the continuous influence of the hot market, the booking space of some routes is 6 times that of the actual routes!

Recently, the freight rate from Yantian to Algeciras has reached as high as 10,000 US dollars. A Maersk spokesperson said: “From July to October, all the containers that can be found have been rented out, but the leasing market has dried up. There are no empty boxes."

Shanghai, Ningbo, and Qingdao are still short of containers. Freight forwarders are experiencing the high freight rates of 4000 USD in South America, 5000 East America, and Southeast Asia, and there are no spaces and no cabinets.

The cost of cross-border logistics is also soaring, and export shipping charges are rising. The container freight rate from Shanghai to the basic port on the west coast of the United States has reached the highest level in 8 years. We are experiencing the high prices of 4000 in South America and 5000 in the East of the United States. Nowadays, the high freight rates of the US route have not yet come down, and Southeast Asia is following. ...A shipping company announced that the price of exports from Shenzhen to all ports in Southeast Asia will increase from November 6, 2020! +USD500/1000/1000.

The maritime THE Alliance plans to cancel a quarter of the Asia-Northern Europe routes in the first week of December, which is in line with the plan of Hapag-Lloyd, a member of the alliance, to increase the freight rates of its routes by 70%. Coincide.

The Mediterranean route, similar to Europe, has slightly increased freight rates.

On the Persian Gulf route, the supply and demand situation was generally stable, and the freight rate increased by 2.2%.

The Australia-New Zealand route is in the peak season before Christmas, and the relationship between supply and demand is good, and the price of spot booking increased by 10.4%.

For South American routes, the transportation demand was at a high level, and the freight rate rose again after the return, and the spot booking price increased by 3.4%.

Hapag-Lloyd announced that from November 15th, a surcharge of US$175 per box will be charged for 40-foot tall containers, which will be applicable to the route markets from China (including Macau and Hong Kong) to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean.

CMA CGM announced on November 10 that it will charge a "peak season surcharge" of US$600/FEU for cargo shipped from all ports in Asia to all destinations in the Mediterranean from November 15.

Hapag-Lloyd announced that it will increase the price of voyages from East Asia (excluding Japan) to the UK to USD 5,190/FEU, and increase the price of voyages to the Western Mediterranean to USD 4,710/FEU, and increase the price to USD 4,690. / FEU to the North Continent.

The freight rate (sea freight and ocean freight surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the basic European port market was USD 1,246/TEU, an increase of 9.3% from the previous period.

The freight rate (sea freight and ocean freight surcharges) for exports from Shanghai to the Mediterranean basic port market was 1365 USD/TEU, up 2.7% from the previous period.

Maersk recently stated that it will take a long time to restore normal transportation conditions in the past.

The decline in international logistics capacity has led to a surge in container ship freight rates. Under the background of tight capacity, the industry frequently produces container shortages and container dumping! Both Textainer and Triton, the world's top three container equipment leasing companies, said that the shortage of containers will continue in the coming months. Industry insiders pointed out that the global shipping market will continue to be "difficult to find one ship and hard to find one box", and mainstream shipping companies have booked space until late December. In the next period of time, it is still a high probability event that shipping prices maintain a high level.

A large number of foreign trade orders returned

There is a long queue at the entrance of the textile printing and dyeing factory in Keqiao, Shaoxing, Zhejiang. Printing and dyeing orders that could be shipped in two days now have to wait more than 40 days; small household appliances companies in Foshan, Guangdong, goods are full of warehouses, yards and parking lots ; Guangdong home appliance export companies have their orders scheduled until March next year... The rapidly rising foreign trade market has made Chinese manufacturing a veritable "order harvester".

The reason is that China is the only country in the world that has a well-controlled epidemic, a complete textile industry chain and can successfully reach production. In India, Sri Lanka and other major textile countries in South Asia and Southeast Asia, many textile export companies are unable to deliver goods normally due to the epidemic, and many textile orders originally placed in these countries have been transferred to China. Some factories that have received "return" orders from India expect that the number of orders now has been scheduled to May 2021. The orders of textile and garment enterprises have increased significantly. In the production workshop of a textile enterprise in Kunshan, Jiangsu, workers need to work three shifts every day to meet the demand for production orders.

Since the third quarter, my country's foreign trade exports have accelerated to recover, and the popularity of export orders in the home furnishing industry, which is dominated by the domestic market, has also exceeded industry expectations. After experiencing a sharp decline in February-May, Guangdong's furniture export orders gradually recovered to the level of the same period last year in June-August, and started to explode in August. Orders of some companies are scheduled to March next year, directly causing a large gap in employment. As of October, the furniture industry's transaction volume increased by 191% year-on-year, and the number of payment orders increased by 112% year-on-year.

India is the world's largest cotton-producing country and yarn-producing country. Recently, the number of newly confirmed cases and cumulative confirmed cases in a single day in India have remained high, and the entire upstream textile industry chain such as cotton processing and export and cotton gauze production has been strongly impacted. At the same time, retailers in Europe and the United States have successively resumed stores since the second half of the year. In order to ensure the supply during the peak sales seasons such as Thanksgiving and Christmas in the fourth quarter, these downstream companies transferred some orders to China for OEM production.

The rapid recovery of these downstream industries has huge demand for raw materials such as coatings and chemicals. It is self-evident that the chemical raw materials such as polyurethane, textile industry chain and MDI, TDI, propylene oxide, dimethyl carbonate, bisphenol A and epoxy resin have increased strongly. In this way, it is not difficult to understand the crazy situation of raw materials list for half a year, reluctance to sell the market, no quotation, single negotiation, and destruction of the order.

Affected by the epidemic, many foreign-funded companies have transferred orders originally produced in their home countries and other countries to China. As one of the regions with the best epidemic control in the world, China has adopted a series of powerful policies and measures to ensure rapid resumption of work and production, and rely on a complete industrial chain and supply chain to become a "safe haven" for global companies. Recently, there has been good news in export trade.

Hot orders, rising shipping prices, queuing orders and even short supply of goods, are all factors that promote the hot price increase of many domestic commodities. Under the stimulus of many factors, chemical raw materials and chemical products have also been driven accordingly. These factors continue to exert force, and it is expected that this upward trend will not end in the future, and the crazy situation may continue in the short term.